Nuke and Change

One of the theories we have had in class is that one of the ways change in the international occurs is through shocks to the system. In my group's presentation we brought up the reasons why nations that currently possess nuclear weapons will not disarm, and I think that's a pretty convincing argument. However, the idea of a traumatic event might be a key to changing the system.

The Cuban Missile Crisis was the closest the world has come to a nuclear exchange, and there have been numerous mishaps throughout the world involving nuclear weapons. Since none of these events have resulted in appreciable change in the theory of mutually assured destruction, I doubt anything short of a limited nuclear exchange would result in a dramatic disarmament plan.

There are two possible scenarios that I see could realistically bring about a limited nuclear exchange. The first is an India/Pakistan scenario, and the second is a war between NATO and Russia, but only one where Russia utilizes its escalate to de-escalate strategy. There are many other possible scenarios that involve nuclear weapons, but they don't meet the criteria. First, a large scale nuclear exchange between any combination of NATO, Russia, and China will be so devastating as to its effects that humanity may not survive. Second, a war between a small nuclear armed state, such as North Korea, and NATO, as long as a more capable ally does not become a belligerent, would not necessarily involve nukes, due to the overwhelming conventional capabilities of the US.

The two viable scenarios involve the use of enough nuclear weapons to have dramatic consequences for the world's environment and economies, but not enough to end the system all together. The result of either scenario could conceive of a change to the system akin to the founding of the UN. The real sticking point in this scenario is the requirement that nations give up portions of their sovereignty, the ability to use nuclear weapons, in exchange for the security that such dramatic events will not happen again.

And the desire for nations to hold on to their sovereignty and autonomy in terms of national security in all circumstances is precisely why change in the form of nuclear regulation is so difficult.